INTRODUCING OUR NEW QUARTERLY UPDATES
Quarterly Property Market Updates
At BMI Group, we believe in keeping our clients, investors, and stakeholders informed about the dynamic landscape of Gibraltar's property market. Through our periodic updates, we share insights, trends, and forecasts based on extensive analysis and on-the-ground expertise, as shared by our Co-Founder and Managing Director, Louis Montegriffo. These updates provide clarity on the opportunities and challenges shaping the market, ensuring you have the information you need to make informed decisions.
A Year of Realignment and Resilience:
The past year has been a period of significant realignment for Gibraltar’s property market. As Louis Montegriffo explains, "We’ve seen a recalibration of property values to meet realistic demand," a process influenced by external factors and shifts in buyer and investor behaviour. Despite a slowdown in sales, the long-term outlook remains optimistic, bolstered by Gibraltar’s enduring resilience and adaptability. This market stability is underpinned by key industries like e-gaming, online gaming, and financial services, which continue to attract high-value clients and residents.
Gibraltar Property Update | Part One | Q3 and Q4 2024
In this third and final property update of 2024, Louis Montegriffo, Co-Founder of BMI Group Estate Agents, offers an in-depth analysis of Gibraltar’s property market's performance over the last two quarters.
The property market in Gibraltar has experienced significant changes in recent months, reflecting a period of economic realignment influenced by external factors. This quarterly update explores these developments, offering valuable insights for investors, clients, and stakeholders.
The past year has seen the market undergo a noticeable downturn, beginning around mid-2022. However, this downturn is better described as a "realignment" rather than a recession. The adjustment reflects a recalibration of property values to meet realistic demand. As stated in the discussion, "a lot of that also driven by an oversupply of properties coming on, people wanting to extract value on sales, which are no longer relevant."
Despite this realignment, no dramatic changes are expected in the immediate future. The process continues steadily, and while fluidity in property sales has slowed over the past 18 months, the long-term outlook remains optimistic.
Central to this optimism is the much-anticipated agreement. Although progress has been delayed, particularly due to the announcement of UK elections by Rishi Sunak, confidence remains high that a resolution will be achieved. As noted, "we still take the view now, months later, that that is still going to happen." The agreement is expected to stabilise the market and provide renewed confidence in Gibraltar’s long-term prospects.
Gibraltar’s resilience in the face of challenges has been a recurring theme. Its ability to overcome political and economic hurdles over centuries demonstrates its strength and adaptability. Even amidst Brexit-related uncertainties, Gibraltar continues to offer stability and security to newcomers.
The economy remains driven by key sectors such as e-gaming, online gaming, and financial services, which are vital to its continued success. Protecting and adapting these industries will be essential as any agreement may require adjustments in business models. From a property perspective, the agreement is likely to bring renewed energy to the market. However, as cautioned, "we don’t necessarily feel that we’re going to see a huge growth in property prices happen overnight."
Expectations should remain measured. While the market is not anticipated to experience dramatic changes, the gradual return of fluidity in sales will signify progress. The current realignment, involving a 10%-20% downturn in values, is a necessary adjustment, positioning the market for sustainable growth.
Gibraltar continues to demonstrate its capacity for reinvention, emerging stronger with every challenge. The property market’s evolution reflects this resilience, offering long-term promise for those invested in its future.
The Gibraltar Property Update is a quarterly summary of Gibraltar's property update. Brought to you by BMI Group Estate Agents and delivered by Louis Montegriffo, it provides a market-wide snapshot for those looking to buy, sell and invest in real estate in Gibraltar. This update is produced by Motion Gibraltar.
Tax Reforms: Balancing Challenges and Opportunities*
One of the most debated topics has been the proposed Tax Act. While the introduction of a capital gains tax and other measures has raised concerns, Montegriffo highlights the importance of balanced policies. "To tax retrospectively would be wrong," he asserts, advocating for fair and forward-looking approaches to protect investor confidence. Thoughtful measures, such as the 0.5% stamp duty on off-plan property vendors, align with market realities and demonstrate a commitment to maintaining Gibraltar’s appeal as a stable investment hub.
Gibraltar Property Update | Part Two | Q3 + Q4 2024
Quarterly Market Update: Navigating Realignment and Anticipated Growth
The property market has undergone notable shifts in recent months, reflecting economic realignment and external influences. In this quarterly update, we explore key trends, challenges, and opportunities shaping the current landscape, providing valuable insights for investors, clients, and stakeholders.
Market Overview: A Year of Updates
Our quarterly market updates have become a cornerstone for tracking developments in the property sector. Since mid-2022, the market has experienced a noticeable downturn, prompting discussions on topics such as frontline properties and rates per square meter. These updates aim to contextualize these shifts for clients, applicants, and market enthusiasts.
The Realignment Process</p>
The market’s downturn is better characterized as a "realignment" rather than a recession. This adjustment, a natural economic process, reflects the recalibration of property values to align with realistic demand. An oversupply of properties, combined with sellers attempting to maintain inflated prices, has further driven this realignment. As a result, the market continues to evolve, with no significant deviations expected in the near term.
The Role of the Agreement
Central to this period of realignment is the much-anticipated agreement that has been a focal point in recent discussions. Despite delays, particularly following Rishi Sunak’s announcement of UK elections, confidence remains high that an agreement will be reached. This agreement holds the potential to stabilize the market and renew confidence in Gibraltar’s long-term prospects.
Gibraltar’s Resilience Amid Challenges
Gibraltar’s ability to overcome political and economic hurdles has been demonstrated time and again over its long history. Despite Brexit-related uncertainties, Gibraltar continues to offer stability, security, and a forward-looking approach to newcomers. These qualities have positioned the territory as a resilient player in the face of adversity, enabling it to emerge stronger from every challenge.
Key Economic Drivers
The local economy is predominantly fueled by e-gaming, online gaming, and financial services. These sectors remain pivotal, requiring protection and adaptability to navigate changing circumstances. Any agreement is likely to necessitate adjustments in business models, ensuring these industries continue to thrive while aligning with new regulations.
The Agreement’s Market Implications
From a property perspective, the anticipated agreement is expected to reinvigorate the market, albeit gradually. While an immediate surge in property prices is unlikely, increased fluidity in sales—absent over the past year—could signal renewed momentum. However, expectations of dramatic price increases should be tempered, as growth is likely to be incremental.
The property market’s realignment reflects a 10%-20% downturn, yet this period of adjustment is paving the way for sustainable growth. As Gibraltar continues to navigate its economic landscape with resilience and adaptability, stakeholders can look forward to a market that emerges more robust and aligned with current realities.
This update underscores the importance of staying informed and managing expectations as the market evolves. The future holds promise, but progress will be measured and deliberate, ensuring long-term stability.
The Gibraltar Property Update is a quarterly summary of Gibraltar's property update. Brought to you by BMI Group Estate Agents and delivered by Louis Montegriffo, it provides a market-wide snapshot for those looking to buy, sell and invest in real estate in Gibraltar. This update is produced by Motion Gibraltar.
Rentals: The Market’s Standout Performer
The rental sector has been a standout performer over the past six months, offering stability and growth amidst a challenging market environment. As Montegriffo observes, "Rentals are a teller of how the market's doing," and the strong demand for larger units like two-, three-, and four-bedroom properties signals Gibraltar’s ongoing attractiveness. This demand reflects the territory’s ability to draw both high-value clients and long-term residents, even as sales activity slows.
The Studio Market: Concerns Over Speculative Investments:
While rentals thrive, the studio apartment segment poses unique challenges. With an oversupply of nearly 1,000 units and speculative investment driving much of the activity, there are concerns about sustainability. Montegriffo cautions against uninformed speculative purchases, particularly by inexperienced investors. "We see so many resales becoming available," he notes, highlighting the potential risks of over-reliance on this property segment.
Property Market Update | Part Three | Q3 + Q4 2024
The rental market has served as a key indicator of Gibraltar’s overall property market performance. Over the past six months, rental activity has been a bright spot, with increasing volumes of transactions. Despite challenges in the broader property market, rental demand has remained strong, reflecting continued interest in Gibraltar as a destination.
Comparison of Sales and Rentals
While property sales have slowed significantly due to various market factors, rentals have performed well. This disparity suggests that although buyers are cautious in the current climate, demand for housing persists. The robust rental market underscores Gibraltar’s continued ability to attract high-value clients and residents.
Shifting Rental Prices and Growing Demand
Rental prices, which had dipped slightly in recent months, have begun to stabilise and even recover in some cases. Encouragingly, demand has surged for larger units, including two-, three-, and four-bedroom properties. This trend highlights the continued attraction of family-sized residences.
Ongoing Concerns in the Studio Market
The studio apartment market in Gibraltar remains a longstanding concern. With approximately 1,000 studios either built or under construction, this segment represents the majority of properties available for sale and rent. The abundance of studio apartments raises questions about long-term sustainability and balance in the market.
The Impact of Speculative Investments
Speculative investment in studio apartments has become a notable issue. Many young and inexperienced investors have purchased low-cost studios at high rates per square metre, drawn by quick profits. This speculative behaviour has led to many resales entering the market, reflecting potential over-supply and financial strain on these investors.
Concerns Over Speculative Behaviour
Speculation in the property market is not inherently problematic if managed carefully. However, the prevalence of inexperienced speculators in the studio segment has amplified the availability of resales, creating concerns about market stability. This trend has been a consistent source of unease in the local property market.
Looking Ahead: Updates and Market Insights
This podcast concludes with a summary of recent trends and developments. Future updates will not adhere to a strict schedule but will instead be shared when there is significant news. Anticipation remains high for updates on the impact of a potential agreement on Gibraltar’s property market.
Season’s Greetings and Future Outlook
As the year draws to a close, the team extends warm wishes for the Christmas season and expresses optimism for the year ahead. They look forward to continuing these discussions in the new year, sharing insights and updates on market developments.
The Gibraltar Property Update is a quarterly summary of Gibraltar's property update. Brought to you by BMI Group Estate Agents and delivered by Louis Montegriffo, it provides a market-wide snapshot for those looking to buy, sell and invest in real estate in Gibraltar. This update is produced by Motion Gibraltar.
Looking Ahead to 2025
As Gibraltar’s property market continues to evolve, the BMI team remains committed to delivering timely and relevant updates. Montegriffo concludes, "We look forward to sharing more news about how market developments and agreements impact Gibraltar’s property sector." With an eye on the future, these updates aim to provide clarity and confidence in an ever-changing landscape.
Stay tuned to our Quarterly Updates for the latest market insights and expert commentary from BMI Group, ensuring you’re always ahead in Gibraltar’s dynamic property market.
Executive Summary: Gibraltar Property Market Update Q2, 2024
The Gibraltar property market has experienced a significant increase in the volume of properties available for sale and rent. There are 170 to 200 units for sale, a notable rise from the under 100 units in previous years. Similarly, rental availability has surged to 70-100 units from just 10 units a year and a half ago. This increase has led to a market slowdown and a slight realignment in property prices.
Property Prices:
- General Market: Prices have decreased by 5% to 12%, depending on the market segment.
- Prime Properties: High-value prime properties have maintained their rates at £9,500 to £10,500 per square metre.
- Average Price: The average property price in Gibraltar is currently £860,000 to £870,000, a slight decrease from last year.
Property Yields:
- Historically, Gibraltar has seen yields of 4.5% to 5.5% on buy-to-let investments.
- Current yields have decreased to between 3.8% and 4.2%.
- Buy-to-let investments now face competition from fixed-term deposits, affecting their attractiveness.
Market Drivers:
- Oversupply: The increase in property volumes, especially studios, has contributed to the price adjustments.
- Interest Rates and Inflation: These economic factors have also impacted the market.
- Pending Treaty: The anticipation of a new treaty agreement is expected to bring stability and confidence to the market, potentially preventing further price decreases.
New Developments:
- One Bayside Development: A new, low-density development with 57 units priced at £6,700 per square metre has been successful.
- Future Developments: There is concern about high-volume, high-density developments currently under planning, particularly on Devil’s Tower Road, which may exacerbate the oversupply issue.
The Gibraltar property market is experiencing a slowdown, with an increase in property volumes and a slight decrease in prices. The market's stability and future growth are heavily dependent on the upcoming treaty agreement, which is expected to boost confidence and stabilise prices. Investors and buyers should consider the current market conditions, including the impact of new developments and economic factors when making decisions.
Listen to the Gibraltar Property Market Update for Q2, 2024 by BMI Group Estate Agents.
NB: At the time of recording this Podcast (16th May 2024) the Treaty / Agreement referred to was indeed in our view at imminent.
With the news of the snap UK election announced on the 22nd May 2024 to be held on the 4th of July 2024, our thoughts are that it is now very unlikely that an agreement is now likely before September 2024. We are still of the view that Gibraltar needs an agreement and that it will materialise. This pause in our opinion will continue to dampen the market as we are unable to give any long-term security and stability to our economy and therefore property market.
Welcome to the first quarterly Gibraltar Property Market Update from BMI Group Estate Agents.
After 26 years in business, we have acquired unrivalled knowledge of Gibraltar’s property market. Think of these updates as ‘real estate temperature checks’ that provide expert insight into how the local market is performing.
To best understand what’s happening locally, we must consider the global issues that impacted Gibraltar’s property market in 2023 and how those may play out in 2024.
Brexit Negotiations and Border Fluidity Concerns:
Uncertainty surrounding negotiations and border fluidity remains critical for Gibraltar. The ongoing talks and potential for a treaty could have significant implications for the property market, particularly if the outcome affects the cross-border movement of people and goods. A positive resolution might boost investor confidence and stimulate demand for residential and commercial properties.
UK Economy and Property Market Update:
The latest UK Economy and Property Market Update indicates subdued activity in both residential and commercial markets, with construction output expected to stagnate into 2024. Given Gibraltar’s close economic ties to the UK, trends in the UK property market can have a knock-on effect on Gibraltar, influencing investor sentiment and potentially leading to a cautious approach in the local property market.
Global Conflicts and Economic Dynamics:
The escalation of conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, along with rising global instability, has led to increased interest rates and inflation, impacting global economies. These impact supply chains and translate into higher construction costs and living expenses. Whilst we have not exactly seen the investor caution that’s happening in the UK, one must take global geopolitical turmoil into consideration.